The vast majority of Democrats support Obama over McCain

by politicsmatters, Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:34:41 PM EST

Is there some division in the Democratic party now? Well, yes, there is some.

But a new poll, taken entirely (as one might expect) from before Obama clinched the nomination, shows that the vast majority of Democrats support him over McCain.

In the poll, Obama leads McCain by 6 points -- 48 to 42.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/0 4/opinion/polls/main4154051.shtml

And only 12% of Democrats say they will vote for McCain over Obama. These numbers come at the very end of this competitive nominating season, one in which passions were high.  And, as I recall (sorry, no link), those numbers were higher for Republicans who wouldn't vote for McCain when their nominating fight ended.  So, while it would be better if even fewer Democrats supported McCain, these are not terrible numbers for Obama for this stage of the campaign.

Among Clinton supporters, 22% now say they'd vote for McCain over Obama. With those numbers, Obama is still leading McCain by six points. And many of those folks are likely to move to Obama after Clinton endorses him and over the next months as the GE campaign really gets going.

I know that some Clinton supporters will never accept Obama. But these current numbers are not bad at all -- they're certainly not the full 18 million or so who voted for Clinton -- and they should improve.

The good news is that Democrats are already unifying.

FINAL NOTE: Thank you Senator Clinton for a spirited contest, one that brought out so many voters and which talked about how government decisions really matter to their everyday lives.




Tags: Obama, McCain, poll (all tags)

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Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (2.00 / 3)

Minor typo...  

They prefer Obama over McCain....

I have no fears about Democrats voting for Obama.  He has a liberal voting record and this is an important election year.


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:37:33 PM EST

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (2.00 / 4)

Thanks. I guess you can't proofread too much, especially when sleep-deprived.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:41:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (none / 0)

it's cool and totally understandable....

People seem a little testy on the board tonight though, so I figured someone would slam you for it and wanted to preempt...


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:17:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I feel sad about Hillary, (none / 0)

but I am changing gears and changing language.  I think we can do this, and I am glad we have a nominee who has a vision of how one can get done hard things: His rise to this place has been nothing short of breathtaking, and I trust him to take us the distance.


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!
by Beltway Dem on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 06:11:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (2.00 / 1)

Yes, we know this.  This noise on the internet from "supporters" are just the most vocally disappointed and or the Rush/McCain trolls pretending to be outraged Dems.

No fear.


by neonplaque on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:38:44 PM EST

Well said... (2.00 / 2)

I love the fact that even at his weakest point in the campaign at the end of a bruising primary, Obama's leading.  I hope that these town halls go on after some time for Obama to get his candidacy in order.  Obama is going to talk circles around McCain and make him look stupid.  This is going to be fun!


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:42:21 PM EST

Re: Well said... (2.00 / 2)

I agree on the townhall meetings with McCain and they shouldn't start until Obama is ready.  McCain has had 3 months to recover from his short sprint to win his presumptive nominee status.  

Barack should take at least a couple of weeks to work things out with Hillary, re-structure the campaign for the GE, and take break with his family.

The one townhall per week proposal, though, I think is excessive, especially this early in the season.


by neonplaque on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:47:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And do some world traveling... (2.00 / 1)

He needs to look like a president and there is no better way than to talk to foreign leaders in foreign countries.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 10:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I found this picture on democrats.org (2.00 / 1)

title=

Very nice isn't it, I am thinking that number will drop some.  It won't go completely to zero but it will go down as Obama and McCain tie into the race.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:01:49 PM EST

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (2.00 / 1)

McCain was pretty dumb to call Obama out on townhalls today.  If he had waited a few weeks Obama would have been locked in.  I am not saying he shouldn't do it, but the past 24 hours have greatly decreased my respect for the McCain campaign.  He had three weeks to prepare a kick ass speech last night and pretty much blew it.  I am actually more worried about the 527's and his surrogates than his actual campaign.


by Xris on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:17:18 PM EST

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama (none / 0)

12% defections is not good, especially when Democrats are on a high. Kerry had 8% defections and lost. McCain's 8 point advantage among independents is also a danger sign.


by souvarine on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:17:19 PM EST

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama (2.00 / 1)

There is no incumbent this year... and McCain's numbers with independents are actually at risk of plummeting since he kowtowed to his base...

I'm not worried at all to be honest...

Besides, polling data in June for a race in November?  Methinks the numbers will change.


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama (2.00 / 1)

give it some time.  Its June and he is still looking good in the polls.  I am an obama partisan for sure, but I still don't McCain stacking up well against Obama in the eyes of the American public once they start going head to head.  I could be totally wrong, but I feel more confident than I did with Kerry in 2004.


by Xris on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama (none / 0)

There are a LOT more Democrats this year than in 2004. We can afford to yield 4% more to the GOP and lose Indies and still win by 6 points. That's how much partisan ID has changed since 2004.

As Marc Ambinder points out, lots of Republicans have become Independents, and lots of Independents have become Democrats. As a result, the number of Democrats has skyrocketed. And the ranks of Indies includes more ex-GOPers who may see McCain as their kind of Republican.

12% is great news at this stage.


by elrod on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

hmm... (none / 0)

12% is low, by historical standards.  it's even less surprising, given that:

The 40% Democratic identification figure is unusually high. The last time 40% of Americans identified as Democrats was August 2000. Before that, there have been just a handful of Gallup Poll telephone surveys -- going back to 1985 -- in which 40% or more of Americans identified as Democrats.

it should be clear that a lot of people who used to self-identify as independents have moved over to the democratic column.

i don't know where you got the "8% defections" from, but the exit polls from 2004 showed:

VOTE/PARTY ID     BUSH    KERRY
Democrat (37%)    11%    89%
GOP (37%)    93%    6%
Indy (26%)    48%    49%

this is actually the historical high in the exit polls i've seen (1980 and beyond).  in 2000 we find:

Party ID      All      Gore      Bush
Democrat     39 %     86 %     11 %
Republican     35 %     8 %     91 %
Independent     27 %     45 %     47 %

bill clinton got 85% of self-identified democrats...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 09:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: hmm... (none / 0)

From the article:

That's higher than the 8 percent of Democrats who defected to President Bush in 2004.

Maybe different methodology, self-id rather than reg?


by souvarine on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 10:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i caught that after i posted... (none / 0)

yeah, the reason i have trouble with using "registered voters" for party identification is that you have states that don't have formal party registration.  but, yeah, different methodologies, different pollsters, using exit polls instead of pre-election polls.  the 8% "defection" figure is too low from a historical perspective...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 11:14:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i caught that after i posted... (none / 0)

The flip problem is that self-id is so fluid. Registered party members generally return home for the presidential (except where they don't, like the Florida panhandle). Independents current party id is  less correlated with how they vote than a party registration, their vote history is more predictive.

I'm curious though, are you becoming more optimistic  about Obama's chances? So many signs point to the Democrat doing well, but I still think it's harder than it looks.


by souvarine on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 11:43:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i caught that after i posted... (none / 0)

i am (more optimistic).

but it's been a big flip for me.  you know that i thought hillary would win the nomination up until april (basically) because she had the institutional advantages.  i literally had thoughts of bill and chelsea knocking on superd's doors asking for their support this summer.

but barack got ahead of the frame in march.  that's the big change i saw, and one i never anticipated.  it's largely because the media swoons over barack, too and hillary made a couple of mistakes at the wrong time because (i think) she got tired.

i'm not a full convert yet (to barack winning the election).  i'm waiting for the convention.  conventions make candidates look presidential, voters really see it there.  both mccain and hillary have had those convention moments.  barack's was more an introduction, although i think a lot of people thought to themselves then 'he could be president some day.'  in this age, political theater is critical.

david axelrod has never done a convention before.  the convention is the next big step.  if barack has a good convention and gets even the average convention bounce, i'll be much more confident.  but i think that democrats tend to overlook the real organizational advantages that republicans have.  the leadership institute has trained tens of thousands of conservative activists all over the country, and they all know and can implement gop campaign doctrine.  republicans have a better network of independent actors, and a disciplined approach (dominated by grover norquist) that allows republicans to fight this election with a single but cacophonous voice.  we've always had the people, but republicans are still more disciplined.  it's an advantage.

obviously, i like what barack has done with his campaign: strong message, willingness to use the oppo, solid ground organization.  paul tully would be proud.  i'm excited, but not convinced (yet).  call me a laggard!  we have to work very, very hard to beat john mccain, and we can't waste any time getting to it...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:24:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The vast majority of Democrats support Obama o (none / 0)

What is the  percentage of Democrats who will not vote for McCain or Obama?


"No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her." - Susan B. Anthony
by feelfree on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:43:49 PM EST

Who was the last Republican to get 12% (2.00 / 1)

of the Democratic vote? If you look at the 2004 results, his name was George W. Bush. We cannot afford to lose that many Dems.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:44:31 PM EST

so we'll work on that (2.00 / 1)

got any suggestions as to how?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 11:56:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IN West VA its Obama 32% and McCain 43% (none / 0)

of Hillary voters.(CNN Exit)


by itsadryheat on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:30:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IN West VA its Obama 32% and McCain 43% (none / 0)

30% of West VA Democrats voted for Bush in 2004. KY had the same number. Those states are pure DINO land and are not really in play for the Dems anymore; I suspect even Hillary would have struggle to win WV once the GOP started reminding voters there about guns.


by elrod on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:46:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who was the last Republican to get 12% (none / 0)

There are a LOT more Democrats now than in 2004. We can give up a higher number than in 2004.


by elrod on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Honestly... (none / 0)

I think (don't hurt me) that Obama will never reduce the number to 0%. Some people who voted for Hillary will never come over to Obama.

Why?

Because they weren't Democrats.

Some women voted for "Hillary, the Idea of a Female President". I'm not saying that this is the source of her campaign, but they're there. She was a great candidate with lots of strengths. But I'm talking to some people (gun shop owners, so not exactly Democratic leaning) who sympathized with Hillary because they loved the idea of a female President. Those people will never vote for Obama.


by TCQuad on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:24:21 AM EST

Re: Honestly... (none / 0)

I see your point. It is just like some white men and women feeling proud in voting for an African American.

Such people will never come around for party's sake because they aren't Democrats.

Is that what you meant?


by Sandeep on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:59:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Obama wins 100% of Democrats (none / 0)

he'd not only be President, he'd be the first person to ever win all the votes from his party.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 09:50:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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